Broker Check

By The Numbers: March 11, 2019

| March 11, 2019
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03/11/19 Edition

Born from the financial crisis…the bull market just turned 10. See # 1.

$13 billion…a day! See # 3.

Trucks still rule. See # 5.

Hoping this trend continues. See # 7.

1. BULL MARKET YEAR-BY-YEAR - The bull market for the S&P 500 reached 10 years in length as of the close of trading last Friday 3/08/19, having gained +400.1% over the period. The 2 best years (out of the 10 years) for the S&P 500 were the 1st year (up +72.3%) and the 5th year (up +23.7%). The 2 worst years (out of the 10 years) were the 7th year (down 2.2%) and the just finished 10th year (up +0.4%). Each of the annual returns are total return results which include the impact of reinvested dividends. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock's weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research). (source: BTN Research).

2. HALF AS MUCH - The total return for the S&P 500 over its 10-year bull market (i.e., 3/10/09 through 3/08/19) was a gain of +17.5% per year (total return). If you missed the 20 best percentage gain days over the 10-year bull run (i.e., 20 days in total, not 20 days per year), the +17.5% annual gain is cut in half to an +8.6% annual gain. There were 2,517 trading days over the entire 10 years (source: BTN Research).

3. REALLY BIG NUMBERS – President Trump is expected to release an overview of his fiscal year (FY) 2020 budget today, to be followed by budget details on Monday 3/18/19. Total FY 2020 government spending is projected to reach $4.69 trillion or just short of $13 billion a day (source: White House).

4. COMING SOON? - 10% of 281 economists surveyed in February 2019 believe the United States will be in a recession by 12/31/19. 42% of the group believe a recession will have started by 12/31/20 (source: National Association for Business Economics).

5. CONVOY - The US trucking industry moves 61% of the freight transported within the USA (measure by dollar value) and 65% of the freight transported to Canada and Mexico from the US (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics).

6. BUYING AND SELLING - The United States exported $2.5 trillion of goods and services in 2018, the largest total in history and up +36% in the last 10 years. The United States imported $3.1 trillion of goods and services in 2018, also the largest total in history and up +22% in the last 10 years (source: Commerce Department).

7. MAKING THINGS - The 12.8 million manufacturing jobs in the United States as of February 2019 is the nation’s largest total since December 2008 (source: Department of Labor).

8. PENT UP DEMAND - The increase in the number of “owner” households in the USA in the last 2 years almost matches the increase in the number of “owner” households in our country in the previous 14 years. From the end of 2002 to the end of 2016, the number of “owner” households increased by +3.8 million to 75.7 million. From the end of 2016 to the end of 2018, the number of “owner” households nationwide increased by +3.7 million to 79.4 million (source: Census Bureau).

9. HOMES - The average single-family home in the USA increased in value +5.7% during 2018. Home values in Idaho increased +11.9% (top state) while home values in North Dakota were flat (bottom state) (source: FHFA).

10. RENTAL RESTRICTIONS - Oregon Governor Kate Brown signed legislation on 2/28/19 that makes Oregon the 1st US state to impose statewide rent controls. The new law limits annual rent increases to “inflation plus 7%.” New apartment construction is exempted from the restrictions for 15 years (source: Oregon Senate Bill 608).

11. NO DOCTOR NEEDED - 25.5% of Americans had no claims for any health care service (i.e., they did not see a doctor or visit a clinic) or filled a drug prescription in 2017 (source: Health Care Cost Institute).

12. US AND THEM - The Chinese economy grew by +6.6% in 2018, its lowest growth rate since 1990. The US economy grew by +2.9% in 2018, its best growth rate since 2005 (source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Commerce Department).

13. SELL THE FARM - US farms suffered its worst credit crisis in 1987 when high interest rates and falling land prices were the backdrop for 5,788 Chapter 12 bankruptcies nationwide. Just 498 farms filed for bankruptcy in 2018. Chapter 12 bankruptcy is available only to family farmers or commercial fishermen and is less expensive and less complex than a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing (source: Department of Agriculture Farm Service Agency).

14. GUSHER - US field production of crude oil reached 12.1 million barrels a day for the week ending 2/22/19, the largest weekly total reported in the 99 years this statistic has been tracked (source: Department of Energy).

15. STRONG MAN - Iosua Opeta, an offensive lineman from Weber State, had 39 bench-press reps of 225 lbs., the most recorded at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis that ended 3/04/19 (source: NFL).

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Copyright © 2019 Michael A. Higley. All rights reserved. Email for information.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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